Beyond the Tyranny of the Mid-Case: Rethinking How We Design Strategy with Pete Compo

What happens when we fundamentally misunderstand one of strategy's most powerful tools? In this thought-provoking conversation with returning guest Pete Compo, we tackle the frequently misunderstood concept of scenarios and their crucial role in strategic thinking.

When uncertainty looms large, many organizations default to familiar approaches—creating low, medium, and high forecasts before averaging them into a comfortable middle ground. Pete calls this "the tyranny of the mid-case" and explains why it's fundamentally flawed. True scenario thinking isn't about prediction at all, but rather acknowledging the multiple futures that might unfold and considering how they would impact your strategic choices.

One of the most compelling insights from our discussion challenges the common practice of creating different strategies for different scenarios. As Pete eloquently puts it, "Your strategy is at the mercy of all external conditions and events." You don't get to choose which future materializes, so effective strategy must consciously consider various possibilities without attempting to implement multiple approaches simultaneously.

This conversation takes unexpected turns, from questioning when strategy is actually necessary (hint: almost always) to exploring whether organizations must build robustness across all potential futures. Using examples ranging from investment portfolio design to making tea for royalty, Pete illustrates how strategic considerations change dramatically based on your aspirations and the consequences of failure.

By the end, we explore practical guidance for avoiding common scenario pitfalls: never average scenarios, don't ignore upside potential, never use scenarios as forecasts, and remember that scenarios aren't arbitrarily long-term—their timeframe should match your strategic horizon. This episode will transform how you think about preparing your organization for an uncertain future, providing both philosophical insights and practical approaches to more effective strategic planning.

Want to learn more about implementing scenarios in your strategy process? Let us know in the comments, and we'll explore these topics in future episodes.

Send your thoughts to Arkaro