Florida’s Mid-Decade Redistricting Efforts and Implications

Florida's Redistricting Battle Heats Up

By Darius Spearman (africanelements)

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Florida's Mid-Decade Redistricting Push

Florida Republicans are actively considering a mid-decade redistricting effort. This move could potentially gain them more congressional seats (punchbowl.news). The Florida House has even convened a new committee to consider this unusual step (mynews13.com). This breaks from the standard 10-year schedule tied to the federal census. Ron DeSantis is advocating for this rare mid-decade census and Congressional redistricting. He argues that Florida should have more seats than it currently does (floridapolitics.com).

This announcement follows a White House order for a new census excluding undocumented immigrants (mynews13.com). Governor Ron DeSantis has voiced support for the plan. He cites the state's growing population as a reason (mynews13.com). Governor DeSantis stated he would "look favorably" on the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature taking up redistricting (floridaphoenix.com). He noted that the Florida Supreme Court recently upheld the 2022 congressional map he championed (floridaphoenix.com). The current Florida congressional map, established in 2022, resulted in the GOP controlling 20 seats and Democrats 10 (floridaphoenix.com). This map also eliminated Black representation in North Florida (floridaphoenix.com). Republicans are looking to net more seats in Florida. This would be a significant escalation of nationwide redistricting efforts (punchbowl.news).

Understanding Mid-Decade Redistricting

Mid-decade redistricting refers to redrawing electoral district boundaries at a time other than the standard decennial census (floridapolitics.com). This typically occurs every ten years. The U.S. Constitution mandates redistricting every ten years based on census data (avemarialaw.edu). This makes a mid-decade effort unusual and controversial. The controversy often stems from the perception that such efforts are politically motivated. They aim to gain an advantage rather than being driven by regular, constitutionally mandated population counts.

DeSantis believes the state is "malapportioned." He argues this is because the census count stopped in April 2020 (floridapolitics.com). This means subsequent growth is not accounted for in the metric. This historically happens only once a decade. The Florida House's consideration of mid-decade redistricting follows similar efforts in Texas (mynews13.com). Nearly a dozen states have joined the fray. Lawmakers in red states like Indiana and South Carolina are calling for similar redistricting efforts (fox13news.com). Some leaders in blue states like California and New York are also threatening to redraw their maps. They aim to counteract the potential shift (fox13news.com).

The Impact of Gerrymandering

Gerrymandering is the practice of manipulating electoral district boundaries. It aims to favor one political party or group over another. Partisan gerrymandering creates districts that give a disproportionate advantage to a specific political party. Racial gerrymandering involves drawing districts to dilute the voting power of racial or ethnic minority groups. Both forms are significant in redistricting debates. They can undermine democratic principles. They make elections less competitive. They entrench incumbents. They reduce the influence of certain populations. This threatens fair representation and election integrity.

The political manipulation of census data and redistricting practices represents a form of federal gerrymandering (avemarialaw.edu). This is leveraged through the ongoing open-border crisis. By intentionally changing electoral boundaries to benefit political interests, this manipulation undermines the democratic process (avemarialaw.edu). It violates the principle of fair representation. It threatens the integrity of future elections (avemarialaw.edu). The current Florida congressional map, established in 2022, eliminated Black representation in North Florida (floridaphoenix.com). This is a clear example of how redistricting can negatively impact minority communities.

Key Redistricting Terms

Clear definitions to decode the language of maps and representation.

Mid-Decade Redistricting

Redrawing district boundaries at a time other than the decennial census cycle (every ten years).

Out-of-cycle maps
Often litigated

Gerrymandering

Manipulating district lines to advantage a party or group, undermining fair representation.

Partisan
Racial
Cracking & packing

Fair Districts Amendment (Florida)

State constitutional standards intended to prevent partisan or racial gerrymandering in Florida’s redistricting.

Florida Constitution
Anti-gerrymander rules

A quick glossary of core redistricting concepts shaping maps and voter power.
Source: congress.gov · avemarialaw.edu

Excluding Undocumented Immigrants from Census

The exclusion of undocumented immigrants from census counts used for apportionment would significantly alter population totals for states. Consequently, it would affect the allocation of congressional seats. Historically, the total population, including all residents regardless of citizenship status, has been used for apportionment (avemarialaw.edu). The Supreme Court of the United States ruled in 2016 that the total population for the upcoming 2020 census would include all individuals residing in the U.S., regardless of citizenship (avemarialaw.edu).

If undocumented immigrants were excluded, states with large undocumented populations would see their official population counts decrease. This could potentially lead to a loss of congressional seats and electoral votes (academic.oup.com). Conversely, states with fewer undocumented residents might gain seats. This shift could impact the balance of power in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College. When millions of noncitizens are added to the population count, it inflates, distorts, and reshapes congressional district maps (avemarialaw.edu). This leads to districts with inflated counts gaining more representatives in the House. Districts with predominantly U.S. citizens may lose seats (avemarialaw.edu).

Political Stakes and Potential Outcomes

Redistricting can concretely change election results and the balance of power. It does this by redrawing district lines to create more "safe" seats for one party. It can also dilute the voting power of the opposing party or specific demographic groups. It can shift competitive districts to favor one side. In Florida, if new districts are drawn to favor the GOP, it could lead to an increase in Republican congressional representatives from the state. This would strengthen the party's overall majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Nationally, if similar efforts occur in other states, it could significantly alter the partisan composition of Congress. This would impact legislative agendas, committee control, and the ability to pass laws. Ron DeSantis stated that he had been told by people in the Donald Trump administration that Florida could gain "three to five more seats if they did it properly" (floridapolitics.com). If states like Arizona, Florida, New York, and Texas changed their unit of apportionment from total population to Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), their shares of minority opportunity districts could fall significantly (poverty.umich.edu). Overall, Republicans would win more seats in redistricting plans that equalized districts' CVAPs. However, this would generally not be enough to disturb the partisan balance of power significantly (poverty.umich.edu).

Potential Congressional Seat Gains for Florida

Informal estimates suggest significant growth in Florida’s representation.

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Estimated seat gain
3–5 seats
Florida could gain three to five more congressional seats, according to some assessments.

Analysts projected Florida might add several congressional seats following reapportionment considerations.
Source: floridapolitics.com

Legal Challenges and Census Timing

Florida's ability to legally conduct mid-decade redistricting without a new federal census is a complex legal question. While the U.S. Constitution mandates a decennial census for apportionment, states generally have the authority to redraw their district lines more frequently if they choose. This is often based on state-level population estimates or other data. However, such efforts are highly unusual and often face significant legal challenges.

Potential legal precedents or challenges could arise concerning whether the state's chosen population data is sufficiently accurate and constitutionally compliant for apportionment. This is especially true if it deviates from the federal census. Challenges might also argue that such mid-decade redistricting is an unconstitutional attempt to dilute votes or engage in partisan gerrymandering. This could potentially violate state or federal fair districting laws or equal protection clauses. DeSantis maintains that Florida is "malapportioned" because the census count stopped in April 2020. This means that subsequent growth is not accounted for (floridapolitics.com). He reiterated that his team is "going to be looking at the pathways to be able to do the redistricting here in Florida." He would look "favorably" at efforts from the Legislature to move forward (floridapolitics.com).

The National Context of Redistricting

Mid-decade redistricting is not a widespread movement across states. It is highly unusual. It is typically only considered under exceptional circumstances. This occurs when states believe their population has significantly changed since the last decennial census. The broader implications for U.S. House control would be substantial if multiple states successfully pursued mid-decade redistricting. It could lead to a significant shift in the partisan balance of power in the House. States could redraw districts to favor one party. This could potentially alter the majority party. It could influence legislative outcomes for the remainder of the decade.

However, such efforts would likely face intense legal scrutiny and political opposition. Mid-decade congressional redistricting is a concept that raises key issues (congress.gov). This suggests it is not a routine occurrence. The U.S. Constitution mandates redistricting every ten years based on census data (avemarialaw.edu). This makes mid-decade efforts atypical. President Donald Trump has called for Texas and other red-leaning states to redraw their congressional maps. He aims to increase the GOP margin in 2026. He fears Republicans could lose their narrow majority in the U.S. House (floridaphoenix.com).

Democratic Opposition and Concerns

Democrats and critics are voicing strong opposition to the proposed mid-decade redistricting in Florida. They call it a "power grab." Florida Democrats have called the latest redistricting effort "deeply troubling." They see it as a threat to fair representation (fox13news.com). Typically, redistricting maps are drawn every 10 years. The latest effort in Florida took place just three years ago (fox13news.com). Concerns exist that such efforts could jeopardize some marginal Republican seats. This could happen if they "fiddl[e] around in other areas" (wusf.org).

Critics call the effort a "power grab." This highlights their specific concerns. These include threats to fair representation, voter dilution, and democratic norms. State Sen. Shevrin Jones, a Democrat in South Florida, told CBS News that another round of redistricting would amount to "a straight-up power grab, politicians picking their voters, instead of voters picking their representatives." He added, "The Republicans drew the damn maps, and now they want to come back and cut out Black Democrats and even Democrats who have worked across the aisle for their district."

Typical Redistricting Cycle

Census anchors the map-drawing process on a 10-year cadence.

Year 0
Federal Census

Year 1–2
New Maps Drawn

Year 10
Next Federal Census

Redistricting generally follows each decennial census, with maps redrawn in the 1–2 years after the count.
Source: fox13news.com

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Darius Spearman has been a professor of Black Studies at San Diego City College since 2007. He is the author of several books, including Between The Color Lines: A History of African Americans on the California Frontier Through 1890. You can visit Darius online at africanelements.org.